We meet again, Group D. This pack of teams broke a lot of expectations last week, with LGD’s surprise free fall making room for Origen’s ascension. The pecking order is still in flux here, especially as LGD made a roster swap during the days off (see below) that has the potential to revitalize their team. With that uncertainty, we’ll be looking for matches that have the potential to long and bloody, no matter who wins.
You’ll also find more caveats below like “If LGD wins their first game, then…”. That’s the beauty of today’s matches! Because they’re done in three chunks (games 1 and 2, games 3 and 4, games 5 and 6), you can see how teams look in their first game and then edit your rosters for the later leagues! So, if you want to have the best chances, wake up early to watch the first games and edit the rest of your lineups before they lock.
Featured Image Photo Credit: LoL Esports Flickr
TopThe Stud: Ssumday vs. TSM ($7300)
Ssumday is the biggest top lane stud in this group, and TSM is the easiest team to predict a win against. He scored 35 points against them last time on Darius, and this time should be similar regardless of what champion he gets.
The Value Pick: Flame vs. TSM ($6500)
LGD swapped in their top lane substitute! Do not play Acorn today. Flame will be the starter, and he’s done well in the matches he played in the regular season. There’s still some risk here as LGD might swap back to Acorn if Flame bombs in the earlier match. But if he helps LGD look strong in their first match, he’ll be a great play for the rest of the day — and, as of this writing, he’s still cheaper than Acorn.
JungleThe Stud: Score vs. TSM ($6700)
It’s so hard to predict what LGD will do this week. They’re two biggest weaknesses were a non-carry top laner and a lack of preparation—they’ve had time to fix both of those this week, so they could come out the gates as the studs they were supposed to be all along. So, even though most players’ highest scores last week were against LGD, I’m looking at TSM to be the more reliable punching bag this time around. KT’s Score grabbed 33 points against them before as he took advantage of Santorin’s passive playstyle. I think this is the safest jungler pick until we see what the new LGD looks like.
The Value Pick: Score vs. OG ($5800)
The salary-setters expect KT to beat Origen, so Score is actually a little more expensive than I expected, but he’s still cheaper than the studs. He only got 19 points the last time these two teams played, but this could be the game that decides who gets first place at the end of the day, so I expect some fireworks.
MidThe Stud: GODV vs. TSM ($7600)
Warning: this is one you’ll need to track up to the last minute, so you can see how LGD does in their first game before committing to this one. But GODV has been one of the most consistent fantasy mid laners in the group, despite LGD losing. I think they’ll really surprise TSM today, who show every sign of becoming a train wreck at the end here, like CLG did on Thursday. GODV scored 28 points in their last match, and has the potential to go much higher if they win this time around.
The Value Pick: Bjergsen vs. LGD ($6700)
LGD may have recovered by the time TSM plays them (in which case, take GODV above!). But if LGD is still stumbling like a drunk teenager, this matchup is way too juicy to resist. Bjergsen tore them apart last week for 66 points! That’s worth two players’ typical wins on your roster.
AD CarryThe Stud: Imp vs. OG ($7400)
This is a less-sure pick than my stud recommendations typically are. This is based more on the gut feeling that LGD is going to make a comeback today and give OG and run for their money. Last time these teams fought, both ADCs were a part of all but one of their team’s kills. That let Imp get 30 points in a low-kill loss. If LGD looks at all improved this time around, he has nowhere to go but up.
The Value Pick: Niels vs. LGD ($7000)
Niels has been remarkably consistent at this tournament–his first time at Worlds! I’m counting on that continuing through today’s gauntlet of games. He scored 44 points against LGD last week, and if LGD looks anything short of amazing, he should be able to score well again. Remember, both ADCs win when close games have high kill counts.
SupportThe Stud: Piccaboo vs. TSM ($6400)
Piccaboo is the stud support in this group, with only Mithy even coming close. He averaged 29 points per game last week, and scored a little higher than that against TSM. Expect another solid game as he takes advantage of TSM’s weak long lanes.
The Value Pick: Mithy vs. KT ($4900)
This will be one of the last matches of the day, so you should have plenty of time to analyze how both of these two teams are looking before committing. If OG looks as strong as they did last week and KT doesn’t look as refined as usual, this could be a great gamble. If KT is playing clean or OG looks suspect, though, look for Lustboy against LGD as a potential cheap pick in the same time slot.
TeamThe Stud: KT vs. TSM ($4700)
KT doesn’t try to play bloody games, but they sure love taking objectives. This should be an easy pile of points.
The Value Pick: OG vs. LGD ($3900)
I originally had LGD as the underdog pick here, but they actually cost more than OG! If LGD stumbles at all in their first game, consider grabbing the cheap OG squad, who scored more than 20 points every game so far.