LoL Targets: January 15

Well, that mostly went as expected. The big surprise of the first day of EU matches was Fnatic emerging as an aggressive, dominant force by ripping Origen to shreds. Be wary of the expensive OG picks until we see them recover.

Fair warning: I have unusually strong opinions on the best teams to play today, so you’ll definitely notice some trends below. I’ll offer additional options wherever it makes sense, so you have more choices and can diversify if you don’t want to go all-in. But I wanted to be genuine and honest with you—like, for example, telling you that I filled my entire roster with FNC and H2K players in at least one contest. WOO! Go big or go home!

Featured Image Photo Credit: LoL Esports Flickr

Top

The Stud: Gamsu vs. VIT ($7100)
Gamsu looked like a completely new player yesterday. Gone are his days withering on Dignitas in NA. He looks hungry to devour the entire continent of Europe, and if that means we all get more fantasy points, I’m on board!

Cabochard was the lone bright spot on the pathetic Vitality fantasy roster yesterday, but if Gamsu plays like he did yesterday, it’ll take more than one man to stop him.

The Value Pick: Odoamne vs. OG ($5500)
Rabid wolves couldn’t stop me from taking this value pick today. OG’s top laner, Soaz, has historically been a boom-or-bust player and he was an absolute bust yesterday, letting his lane opponent (Gamsu) amass 40 points!

Odoamne and H2K, on the other hand, looked good despite their modest fantasy numbers. Origen is no pushover, but the price for Odoamne (and all of H2K really) is so low that you don’t need to get much out of him to break even on the investment. He’s cheaper than most Supports!

Jungle

The Stud: Spirit vs. VIT ($6400)
If you’re looking to ride that FNC gravy train today, this is the best bang-for-your-buck option. Spirit barely beat out his mid laner to be the #1 fantasy scorer for Day 1. Despite that, he’s $1.6k cheaper than Febiven, and exactly the same cost as their support Noxiak (who scored 13 less points than him on Day 1)!

The Value Pick: Jankos vs. OG ($5100)
It’s incredibly hard to resist H2K players at these super low prices, even if they’re facing Origen. Jankos’ nickname is “The King of First Blood” and Origen showed weakness to early aggression in yesterday’s match. Jankos should be able to take advantage of that and get some early kills that’ll hopefully spiral into more.

Mid

The Stud: Febiven vs. VIT ($8000)
Fnatic’s Febiven is the clear stud in mid lane, but you probably already know that by now because I won’t shut up about how awesome Fnatic’s newfound aggression is for fantasy owners.

Your other option here is UOL’s Fox facing Giants, but that’s much less of a sure thing and you only save $500 going for it.

The Value Pick: Ryu vs. OG ($6500)
Surprise, surprise. I think this game will be close, but for $1.1k saved, I’m happy to put my faith in H2K’s mid over PowerofEvil. If you’re less confident in H2K’s ability to win, G2′s Perkz is a great gamble at $6.9k against Roccat. He looked smart and confident in his first game (and key to G2′s strategy). And the Roccat win wasn’t very convincing.

AD Carry

The Stud: Rekkles vs. VIT ($8500)
This is one of the riskier picks in Fnatic because he’ll be laning against the best players on Vitality, whether they role swap or not. The only way that Vitality can win the match is if they snowball through bot lane, so there will be a lot of effort expended here.

But Rekkles was assertive in his moves today, striking early and often with his new aggro support. So even if Vitality overcomes the mountain that is Fnatic’s new squad, there’ll need to be a lot of fights along the way. Fights that Rekkles has time and again proven he can squeeze fantasy points out of.

The Value Pick: Forgiven vs. OG ($6800)
I, mean, come on. He’s so cheap that you have to pay more to gamble on anyone else! Your next best option is going to be G2′s Kobbe ($7.2k) who’s facing the worst-looking team of Day 1, Elements. G2 looked good enough to win this match, but not good enough to do it cleanly. Remember, ADC points hinge heavily on winning, so you want to go for whatever matches you’re most confident in picking a winner.

Support

The Stud: Noxiak vs. VIT ($6400)
Noxiak may not be a shotcaller, but he is a bloodthirsty maniac, and I like that even more! The shoutcasters were even pointing out how Noxiak was hiding in brush and setting traps during yesterday’s match to make sure he got kills on the board. He’ll be crucial to this match, as he tries to keep up with Kasing’s often-deadly roams.

The Value Pick: Nisbeth vs. EL ($5200)
There! I did it! I picked someone not on H2K or FNC—I hope you’re happy. Similar to ADCs, support points swing very heavily with the success of their team, so if you’re looking to go cheap, look for the unexciting team that’s still most likely win their matchup. Based on yesterday’s match, I think my mom’s bridge club could beat Elements, so Splyce should be up to the challenge.

Team

The Stud: Fnatic vs. VIT ($5100)
There’s no safer pick today for a win.

The Value Pick: Splyce vs. EL ($4000)
The team spot is probably too risky to go with H2K, who are very likely to have an action-packed match but are only moderately likely to win. For the team spot, we want better odds of winning, since that’s really all that matters in this spot. In this case, I’m betting against Elements more than I’m betting on Splyce.

The closest Josh Augustine ever got to going pro in esports was beating his older brother at Street Fighter. He currently works as a game designer at Daybreak Games. He’d love to talk with you on Twitter.