Gods can bleed. CLG’s epic upset over the undefeated IMT yesterday was a master class in disrupting your opponent’s plans. From the very first second, CLG put IMT on the backfoot and didn’t let up until the Nexus exploded.
I wouldn’t read too much into the loss for IMT — they’re still as strong as ever. Instead, it’s time to recognize CLG as one of the best teams in the region. No reservations or qualifications. Of course, they’re going up against the other best team in the region today (C9), so you’ll have to store that blind trust for Week 8.
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The Stud: Hauntzer vs. TL ($6700)There aren’t any stud top laners that I feel totally confident in today, so I’d recommend going for a value pick here. Huni is the safest but is too expensive to be a reasonable pick. So I’m going with Hauntzer against TL.
Both TL and TSM are two-faced teams and the outcome of this matchup will depend a lot on which team can play together and coordinate their moves. I think TSM has a slight edge in that regard, but I’m hoping it’ll go long and be decent points for both sides.
The Value Pick: Seraph vs. DIG ($5600)Like I mentioned yesterday, Seraph has done extraordinarily well against low-tier teams in the LCS. He had almost a 30-point average coming into this weekend, based on his previous sub positions.
DIG’s Billyboss has done nothing but roll over and give up points to the enemy top laner (outside of their upset of TSM, which was definitely an anomaly). Seraph excels on hard-carry champions, but was relegated to split pushing against Impact yesterday. Billyboss is a much more susceptible target and Seraph should have more time and room to flex his muscles today.
The Stud: Reignover vs. FOX ($7100)Reignover was targeted hard by CLG yesterday. The early jungle invades and constant pressure prevented him from having an impact on the map (or scoring fantasy points, for that matter).
FOX doesn’t have that sort of coordination to repeat that strategy. If they try, Reignover and crew will punish them and snowball the game even faster. Reignover will be back on the champions’ block today.
The Value Pick: Rush vs. CLG ($6100)I want a piece of this matchup, but it’s tough to predict the outcome. Both of these teams are playing extremely well right now, having only lost 1 of their previous 6 matches.
I think this’ll be another well-fought game and you could do well drafting either side, but the key difference for me is that C9 scores better than CLG when both teams win. So if I have to pick a side on what ultimately feels like it could be decided by a coin flip, I’m going to pick the players with the higher point-ceiling. Without a doubt, that’s C9 and especially Rush, whose point average is just a couple points behind those of his the carries, who each cost $1000 more to buy.
The Stud: Bjergsen vs. TL ($7500)You can never really go wrong with a Bjergsen pick. He’s a steady performer that doesn’t spike as high as others, but very rarely returns low numbers, even when his team loses. If you’re betting on TSM’s side of this matchup, he’s gotta be the first person you grab.
If you’re not on board with TSM winning, I’d still avoid Fenix because he has to go up against Bjergsen. Instead, I’d shoot for Pobelter if you can afford him, or Jensen if not.
The Value Pick: Alex Ich vs. DIG ($6300)If REN didn’t burn you too hard yesterday, you should be at least moderately interested in this matchup against DIG, who gave up 24 kills to C9 yesterday. Alex scored 20 points against them when they faced off in Week 2 without Freeze.
With Freeze and Seraph in the lineup, REN should have a much better chance of winning this time around. Don’t set your expectations too high, but Alex should get you a respectable return on the cheap investment you spend on buying him.
The Stud: WildTurtle vs. FOX ($8200)The smiliest ADC in the league did his best to carry IMT against CLG yesterday, grabbing solo kills and throwing his weight around in fights non-stop. While the rest of his team struggled under the pressure, WildTurtle stepped up.
That bodes very well for today’s rebound match against FOX. WildTurtle should hit big money today.
The Value Pick: Piglet vs. TSM ($6700)If you like TL for the upset over TSM, Piglet is once again your first pick-up. He scored a whopping 45 points when they played TSM in Week 1. They may have lost the game, but Piglet scored more fantasy points than anyone else on either team!
Piglet looked great on Kog’Maw yesterday and will be a key part of TL’s hopes of disrupting TSM today.
The Stud: Adrian vs. FOX ($6200)I’d be happy with KonKwon here as well, but if you’re looking for the most reliable stud today, it’s gotta be Adrian. His frequent Soraka pick is extremely valuable for fantasy points, because the champion’s global heal ability makes sure that he can get assist points for any kill his team does, even if he’s nowhere near them.
Him and WildTurtle played really well yesterday and pulled in solid stats in their loss. They should be able to carry that over into serious points today.
The Value Pick: Hai vs. CLG ($5300)Aphromoo is a solid pick as well if you prefer CLG’s chances, but Hai has a lot of great trends behind him. He has the second-highest kill participation of NA LCS supports (only behind FOX’s Big). He has the second-highest assists total (only behind IMT’s Adrian). He has the highest gold difference at 10 minutes.
But those are all fancy numbers that pale against the fact that CLG beat IMT yesterday. I’m pulling some of my confidence for C9 from my completely un-proven assumption that CLG put the vast majority of this week’s planning into beating IMT and will be less prepared against C9.
If C9 can force fights like they have been lately and keep CLG’s split-pushing in check, Hai and crew will be in for another big day.
The Stud: NRG vs. TIP ($5400)NRG’s recent wins have all been careful, controlled games with lots of towers, dragons, and barons killed. They don’t have a great point average due to all of their losses, but TIP shouldn’t stop them from topping a Nexus today.
The Value Pick: Renegades vs. DIG ($3900)You can pay $1500 more to go with CLG as the safer value pick, but true bargain shoppers will need to gamble on REN, who currently have the lowest points/game average of any NA LCS team. Seraph was split-pushing hard in yesterday’s game, though, which is a strategy that leads to very high team points (like CLG’s). So if they can get ahead of DIG and keep split-pushing, this could finally be their team’s time to shine in fantasy.
The closest Josh Augustine got to going pro in esports was beating his older brother at Street Fighter. He currently works as a game designer at Daybreak Games. He’d love to talk with you on Twitter.